The Gold Mine: Assessing the Fantasy Football Outlook of Rookie Running Backs

There is no feeling more cathartic than hitting on a running back in fantasy football. From Ezekiel Elliott’s 1,631 rookie rushing yards to workhorses Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs 1,200 scrimmage yards, first-year backs have a storied history of establishing themselves as league-winners right out of the gate.

And every year there are surprise rookie breakouts like with De’Von Achane in 2023 or Bucky Irving last year, as more young running backs have emerged as strong pass-catchers.

But for every superstar who sets the league on fire, there’s a Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Melvin Gordon II who fail to meet the lofty expectations set for them at a young age. Maybe it’s performing in a committee, a bad offensive line, or sometimes they just lack the ‘it’ factor.

Gordon recorded no touchdowns as a rookie. Trent Richardson scored 11 touchdowns but averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. The list of cautionary tales goes on and on. There’s guys like Bishop Sankey, David Wilson, and Montee Ball who were poised to be fantasy football game-changers but fell flat.

It’s why there’s always real risk for fantasy managers who invest heavily in rookie backs — no matter how talented the player.

Still, history shows that the running backs drafted with high draft usually deliver. Over the last decade, nearly every rookie running back selected in the top 25 of the NFL Draft finished as a top 20 fantasy running back.

And the 2025 NFL Draft class is home to one of the strongest running back classes in recent memory. Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins (if he signs his contract), Kaleb Johnson, RJ Harvey, and Cam Skattebo are all expected to receive meaningful roles early in their NFL careers.

Ashton Jeanty:

Jeanty is currently being drafted in the first round of fantasy leagues following his 2,600-yard, 29-touchdown campaign in his final season with Boise State. Now he is headed to Vegas, where new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is ready to feed the 21-year-old the rock.

In Kelly’s first season at the helm in Philadelphia, LeSean McCoy ran for a career-best 1,607 yards on 314 carries: his most in a single season. And new quarterback Geno Smith has Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Jack Bech, and Tre Tucker on the outside, opening up more space for the Heisman runner-up to operate.

Omarion Hampton:

Selected No. 22 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers, the North Carolina product could not have landed in a better spot for fantasy success. He totaled over 3,100 yards and 30 scores across his final two seasons in Chapel Hill and is set up to be Jim Harbaugh’s new running back of the future in a run-heavy scheme.

After all, JK Dobbins had a career year in Harbaugh’s system last year behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater will have Hampton running wild in 2025.

His main competition for touches in the City of Angels comes from Najee Harris, whose timeline to return remains unclear following an eye injury suffered during the Fourth of July. Hampton was expected to see significant snaps early regardless, but it opens the door for him to strengthen his chokehold on the backfield in Harris’ absence.

He’s currently being selected in the third or fourth round at RB17 ADP, so at his price, he is one of the biggest value finds at the position.

TreVeyon Henderson

Henderson was lightning in a bottle throughout his four years in Columbus. He ran for 1,248 yards and 15 touchdowns as a true freshman and nearly 3,800 yards and 42 scores across his college career. The three-time All Big Ten runner is the best pass blocking running back in the 2025 draft class, and is plenty dynamic as both a runner and receiver.

After being selected No. 38 overall by the New England Patriots, Henderson has an opportunity to be Josh McDaniels’ next versatile backfield option for Drake Maye. Rhamondre Stevenson is still a Patriot but he led all running backs in fumbles in 2024.

Either way, the former national champion is stepping into a clear role in Foxborough. His fantasy football average draft position (ADP) is at RB25 in the fifth or sixth round, meaning he is a solid flex option with upside to begin the season. Through the year though, he should more than return on investment.

Kaleb Johnson

Johnson ran for a career-high 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns in his junior season at Iowa before landing in Pittsburgh in the third round. Jaylen Warren will still be a factor in the pass game, as Arthur Smith loves utilizing multiple running backs.

Especially with 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers under center, the Steelers will often rely on the ground game. His RB28 ADP is roughly around pick 70 according to FantasyPros, with players like Harvey and Quinshon Judkins going before Johnson.

He’s a flex option with upside for more, but Pittsburgh’s offensive system is a little suspect. The talent is there, but proceed with caution.

RJ Harvey

Harvey burst on the scene after transferring from Virginia to UCF. Across his final two seasons as a Knight, the 24-year-old amassed nearly 3,000 yards and 38 touchdowns including 22 scores and 1,577 yards as a redshirt senior.

The 5-foot-8, 205-pound Harvey is also a strong pass-catcher, hence why he was selected by the Broncos in the second round. He is the perfect Darren Sproles-type back for Sean Payton’s scheme, but he has a lot of competition for touches in the backfield.

The Orlando native has to fend off Dobbins, Audric Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin en route to consistent playing time in Denver. The committee nature of this backfield makes his volume unpredictable, so an RB24 ADP in the mid 50’s might not be worth it. If given the choice, players like Henderson, Isiah Pacheco, and Tony Pollard offer a safer floor and more upside.

Rookie running backs come with risks, but the rewards can be huge. The 2025 class is deep and talented, offering fantasy managers plenty of chances to find a difference-maker. Like in every area of your draft, value shopping will be the key to striking gold.