Predicting bold is always fun, especially in fantasy football. You never know what is going to happen before the season starts. One thing I like to do when I make bold predictions is to actually give my reason behind it. So let's get into my reasonings!
1. DJ Moore Finishes as a top 3 WR
Last year we saw DJ Moore breakout putting up 87 receptions for 1175 yards. He did this while playing with Kyle Allen and Will Grier. He was the WR8 prior to going down to injury in week 15. He was on pace for On Moore’s 135 targets in 2019 only 73% of them were catchable, ranking 74th among WR. Even if the targets drop a little due to the new weapons in the offense it’s likely that he will be more efficient with the targets due to an upgrade at QB. Joe Brady coming in as the new OC is what I am most excited about. We saw what he did with that LSU offense and specifically Jamaar Chase/Justin Jefferson. His scheme was able to dominate college football and I expect him to bring his magic to the Panthers. Moore has everything you want in a top fantasy WR. High target totals (135 ranked 10th), High passing offense (2nd in attempts per game), elite athlete (89th percentile + in 4 of 5 metrics), and he’s just a flat out good WR (6th in contested catch rate and 8th in yards after catch). DJ Moore is primed for a breakout year.
2. Marvin Jones Outscores Kenny Golladay
The gap between Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones is MUCH closer than what meets the eye. Let’s take a look at the numbers:
2019 season stats:
Jones: 14.9 Ppg
Golladay: 15.5 Ppg
2019 Games with Matt Stafford:
Jones- WR13 in Ppg (16.5)
Golladay- WR9 in Ppg (17.4)
In their 21 games played together:
Jones: 7.1 Tgt/gm (12.1 Ppg)
Golladay: 6.9 Tgt/gm (13.2 Ppg)
Fantasy Points Per target
Jones: 2.11 (15th)
Golladay: 2.14 (11th)
Obviously I would rather have Golladay this year as I believe he is the better receiver and will see more opportunity to make big plays. It is much more likely that Kenny G finishes outside of the top 7 than inside of it, but that is a whole different conversation. My point here is to fade Kenny Golladay at his current price and draft basically the same guy 7 rounds cheaper! It’s a hot take, bit it is something that I can definitely see happening.
3. D'Andre Swift finishes as a top 15 RB
D'Andre Swift has so much potential to be great in this Lions offense. I know, Kerryon Johnson is there but I am not concerned about him at all. He clearly is not healthy and he hasnt gone over 1 year without getting hurt, ever, dating back to college.
According to sports injury predictor he has a 92% chance of getting injured again this season. And considering the fact that he is already missing practice and is in a brace during practice I would not be shocked if he gets hurt. However, even if Kerryon plays a full 16 games (which won't happen) I still think Swift can finish top 15. He has already locked down the pass catching role. During Theo Riddick's time in Detriot here are his numbers while being the primary pass catcher:
This provides an extremely safe floor in a great offense. Kerryon lead the NFL in goal line carries per game last year. If Swift can vulture some of those carries in this good offense and find the endzone a few times he is going to be set!
4. Gardner Minshew Outscores Kyler Murray
This one is short and sweet.
Kyler Murray is great for fantasy but I think that Minshew is not that far off. With the Jaguars trailing in a lot of games Minshew is going to have to pass the ball. Minshew also ran the ball 67 times last year and scored 0 TD which was one of the worst TD rates among QB's. If he finds the endzone 3-4 times and Kyler Murray doesn't perform to his expectations this is definitely possible.
Through 8 Weeks, Brandon Aiyuk is a WR1
I love Aiyuk as a prospect. He can really do it all and I think that he is a perfect fit in tis offense. With Deebo Samuel expected to miss the start of the season and Jalen Hurd out for the year. Aiyuk will be the primary target on the outside for Kyle Shannahan. In college Aiyuk lead the NCAA in Yards After Catch and ranked 2nd in TD of 50+ yards. The dude is an electric playmaker and I trust Shannahan to use him to his strengths.