1.Tank Dell Outscores Both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs in ½ PPR Leagues.
The Texans should have an explosive offense, and the three Texans' star receivers are being drafted as such: Collins (ADP - WR15), Diggs (WR22), and Dell (WR29). Collins broke out in a big way last year, going for 80 receptions, 1,297 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns on his way to a WR9 finish. However, people are quick to forget the brilliant rookie season that Tank Dell put together in 2023. In 11 games before his season-ending injury, Dell was on pace for 80 receptions, 1,2025 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns, all while playing alongside Collins. In fact, through Week 12, Dell (WR11) was outscoring Collins (WR17). A 14-receiver gap in ADP between these two is far too much. It's also not crazy to say that this returning duo will have more chemistry with CJ Stroud than the incoming Diggs, who fell off of a cliff at the end of '23, averaging just 42 yards over his last 10 games as a Bill (including the playoffs). Diggs was the WR47 from Weeks 10-18.
Give me the cheapest Texans receiver that his QB can't stop gushing over.
2. Christian Kirk Finishes as a Top-15 Fantasy WR.
Kirk is one of the most underrated receivers over the past couple of seasons, averaging 65.3 yards per game (19th most among WRs) and 4.9 receptions per game (23rd) since 2022. Many might gawk at this prediction, but as recently as 2022, Kirk finished as the WR11 after posting 84 receptions, 1,108 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. He wasn't too far off in 2023, when he was the WR23 before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 13. And, if you take out Week 1, when he played just 60% of the snaps (his lowest total of the season), Kirk was the WR16 from Weeks 2-12 on a team with Calvin Ridley. Ridley is now in Tennessee, leaving behind 136 targets (15th most) and 25 red zone targets (3rd most). Kirk is the clear lead receiver on a pass-friendly Jacksonville offense that's looking to bounce back in a big way. My biggest concern right now is the health of Kirk's calf.
3. Jordan Love Finishes Outside of the Top-14 Among Fantasy QBs.
Make no mistake about it, Love enjoyed a great season in 2023, finishing as the QB5 after throwing for nearly 4,200 yards and 32 touchdowns. He enjoyed a particularly strong second half of the season, pacing for over 4,600 yards and 38 touchdown passes (and only 6 interceptions) from Weeks 10-18. Over that stretch, Love was the QB3 behind only Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. However, 5 of those 9 games were against bottom-9 passing defenses, with two others against the Giants and the Panthers. I could be wrong on this but I prefer trusting guys that have more than one half of a season of good football on his resume.
4. Kyle Pitts Finishes as the TE1.
I know you've heard it before, but I promise I have never really been in on Pitts until this year because this time, it IS different. People are already calling him a bust and the guy is 23 years old and posted a 1,000 yard season when he was only 21 years old. And not too long ago, this was the best tight end prospect in recent memory. He's had tough seasons, but that's what happens for most young tight ends, especially when they have backup-level QBs throwing him the football. Enter Kirk Cousins. Cousins has been a boon for many teammates' production (see Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, etc.). In fact, his last tight end, TJ Hockenson, was the TE1 through the first 12 weeks last season before suffering a season-ending knee injury shortly after. Even if you go back to 2022, when Hockenson joined the Vikings in Week 9, he was the TE3 from Week 9-17. This could be a perfect storm of talent finally meeting opportunity.
5. Alvin Kamara Outscores Jahmyr Gibbs.
This one's a hot one, but hear me out. Kamara is the clear-cut lead back on the Saints. Kendre Miller is starting the year on IR and has been struggling in camp. Jamaal Williams was barely utilized last year and for good reason - he averaged less than 3 yards per carry. Yes, less than 3 YPC, not 4. Kamara was on pace for 333 touches last season (would have been 3rd most), and that should be what he's in for again in 2023 with this stable of RBs. He was also quietly the RB3 in fantasy points per game last year (Full PPR; RB5 in ½ PPR). Now to Gibbs. I have nothing against Gibbs; he's an incredibly talented back in a great offense. However, he likely won't even be the RB who gets the most touches in his own backfield. David Montgomery saw 235 touches last year to Gibbs' 234 (and Gibbs played in one more game). Even in the all-important postseason games, Montgomery out-touched Gibbs 45-40. Gibbs, instead, thrived on efficiency, which can sometimes be fluky. Not only that, he is almost certainly not going to be the goal-line back with Monty in town, limiting his TD upside. And, he's also already dealing with some injuries in the preseason. Gibbs should still be a productive fantasy performer, but if Kamara can stay healthy, he could be a league-winner based on his ADP and expected volume coming his way!
Comments