Big Names to Target at Low Prices
Week 4 was a rough week for some of the league's stars, and I'm looking to capitalize on a few of these poor stat sheet performances by some talented players to find trade value for us all.
Dillon has put together a few solid weeks this year, but overall hasn't been super productive, coming in as the RB29 in PPR formats. The Packers are in a spot where their RBs are their best weapons, and their schedule is going to get significantly easier, which means more running the football. That's going to be at least 50% Dillon's job, depending on how much receiving work Aaron Jones gets. Dillon's had a consistently strong workload share and will always be an injury away from being an immediate RB1. He's at worst a weekly FLEX option, and at best a league winner going forward.
Everyone has seen the "George Kittle is a left tackle" jokes circulating the Internet after multiple weeks of Kittle being subjected to help a struggling offensive line. However, he's still one of the best players on this team, and one of Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite targets. Trent Williams will not be out forever, and when he comes back, Kittle will be free to run more routes, see more targets, and produce more points. I'm willing to take this bet on one of the better players this league has, and you should be too.
Michael Pittman Jr.
This is just a situation of an offense that is performing at its absolute floor right now. The Colts may or may not have a better offense in the future, but even if they don't improve, Pittman should get a ton of work. He is the best receiver on that team by a mile, and saw heavy target shares in both of the non-week 4 games he played. Pittman hasn't scored a touchdown since week 1, and won't have many bad fantasy performances like this past one. If you can pry him away at a discount, do it.
This seems obvious, and it really is. Hollywood has enjoyed a large target share as Kyler's de facto number one in this offense, and the Cardinals have been playing from behind a lot, providing very nice game scripts for receivers. With the return of DeAndre Hopkins looming, there is too much going right for Brown to not sell him now. Besides the very clear fact that Hopkins will demand a large target share, he is also straight up a better player, and will be the new "guy" in these garbage time drives where the Cards are just looking for points in any way possible, and the one to look for in close game two minute drills. It is possible that this offense could sustain both Hollywood and DHop, but add to this the fact that the game scripts Arizona has been playing in are the best possible for a number one receiver, and that this can't just happen every week, there's just no way this production keeps up. Whether it's by a marginal difference or worse, Marquise Brown won't be more valuable at any future time than he is right now.
Will Melvin Gordon be a true three down back with Javonte Williams out for the season? Nobody knows for sure, but I have a pretty strong feeling the answer is no. Melvin has had a really bad fumbling problem with 4 fumbles already through 4 games. No coach wants to see that, and it was to the point that Mike Boone saw the field more than him last week against the Raiders. Denver also signed Latavius Murray to their roster this week. As a whole, while it's possible Gordon becomes a true bell cow, (Reports are swirling that the team sees him as a "feature back,") I really don't think his role will be truly game changing, and even if it were, he still wouldn't be as valuable as Javonte Williams was earlier in the year. The low end of this spectrum is an ugly three headed mess. This is a classic instance of selling high when the risk is just not worth the reward.
Robinson is currently the RB13 in PPR formats, which - all things considered - is a performance worthy of above the spot he was drafted. This week, however, Travis Etienne outsnapped him for the first time this week, and as the main receiving threat in the Jacksonville backfield, this puts all the upside in Etienne's stock. If Robinson isn't going to be on the field more than Etienne, there's simply no chance he produces as the RB13 going forward. From now on, unless the trends change, Robinson should be valued as a FLEX option, and I can guarantee most people in your leagues have a higher valuation of him in mind. Capitalize on the discrepancy now before his production completely falls off.