DFS: Must-Starts and Values For Week six
I have found that in DFS, especially GPP tournaments, that there are always players who just have to be in your lineup in order to win. By this I mean that certain studs with great matchups tend to be almost must-plays in these types of tournaments. I’m going to list three guys I think are essentially must-plays in GPP play. Note: All prices used in this analysis are for the site FanDuel but players are priced similarly on most sites relative to each other.
I learned something this week: Lamar Jackson is not a good NFL quarterback. Yes he will have huge games against bad defenses similar to Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott, but anytime he plays a good defense he has struggled immensely. While his rushing ability can provide a good floor his inability to complete passes against good defenses hurts his upside.
Anyways, let’s get to the must-starts of the week.
Must-Starts for Week Six:
Patrick Mahomes $9200, Deshaun Watson $8400
In what should be a very high scoring game, it seems hard to go wrong with either of these guys. Watson is coming off a ridiculous five touchdown week and is facing a very suspect Chiefs defense. Mahomes also faces a struggling Houston secondary that makes him a must start as well.
Mark Ingram $7500
He’s coming off a game in which he only had 44 rushing yards on 19 carries however he now faces the second worst ranked rush defense in terms of yards allowed per game. His floor is solid to to his high amount of touches and his ceiling is very high considering the matchup.
Le’Veon Bell $6800
With Sam Darnold finally healthy, look for Bell to actually have some room to run as teams cannot put eight guys in the box every single play. Bell has a very high usage rate this season and he’s due for a big game. Last time Darnold played he had 17 rushes and six receptions plus a touchdown. He is a must-start more due to his price than his production.
Adam Thielen $7200
After a two reception for six yard stinker, Thielen game out seven receptions for 130 yards and two touchdowns. This Philly secondary has been pretty bad up until this point and although Kirk has his bad moments, I think the matchup is too good to pass up for Thielen and hopefully Kirk can be, at minimum, a serviceable NFL quarterback this weekend.
Value Plays for Week Six:
Derrick Henry $6700
He’s a big name but his price has steadily fallen the last few weeks to a point in which he has real value in DFS. Although his lack of involvement in the pass game severely limits his floor, he has recieved 48 combined touches the last two weeks and is the focal point of this Titans offense. Denver is not very good against the run ranking 22nd in terms of yards allowed per game. He’s definitely touchdown dependent but considering his high usage in the red zone he’s a solid play this week.
Tevin Coleman $5000
He is literally one of the lowest possible prices on FanDuel. He just had 16 rushes for 97 yards and a touchdown in only his first game back. The upside at this insultingly low price makes Coleman essentially a must start in DFS formats. However, he does share carries which could limit his floor.
Calvin Ridley $5500
His price is way too low for his talent level. Even though during weeks three and four his production was terrible, he was limited by a hip injury and he now seems to have recovered quite nicely considering his nine target, five receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown game. Great value for a great player.
Michael Gallup $6100
Great matchup against a struggling Jets secondary. 14 targets last week mean the volume for him is there as well. His price is not indicative of his upside this week. Definitely a worthy value play at WR. Gallup, now healthy has the potential to explode against the Jets this week.
Jamison Crowder $5400
The Cowboys should be up early meaning the Jets are most likely playing from behind. Factor in his 19 targets and 14 receptions in the last game with Darnold plus Herndon’s injury, Crowder has the potential to be one of the best value plays this week. His floor is probably higher than his ceiling however so if you have a relatively safe team this guy is not the 'shot-in-the-dark' player you might be looking for.
Byron Pringle $4500
Watkins is out and Pringle is coming off of a six reception 103 yard game with a touchdown to boot. The risk is very high considering the fact that Mahomes has been shown to make only one guy on his team have a great week. The potential in a shootout is there and this guy has the potential to be a huge value at his very low price.