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Evaluating Green Bay's Offense: Who to Draft and Who to Avoid



In what was expected to be a rebuilding season for the Green Bay Packers, Jordan Love and company surpassed the expectations of many in a significant manner, as Love finished his inaugural campaign for Green Bay under center as the QB5 in total points (319.1) and QB6 in points per game (18.8). 


For the Packers, the explosiveness of the blossoming supporting cast saw expectations surge in Love’s second season at the helm, especially fresh off of a hefty payday. 


Josh Jacobs (RB)

As longtime back Aaron Jones’s tenure in green and yellow came to a close, general manager Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur brought in Josh Jacobs to be the new workhorse in the backfield. In 2022, Jacobs put up career-best numbers, averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game before coming back down to earth with a 13.9 points per game last year. 


However, at 26, Jacobs enters the best situation of his career, as LaFleur has worked with explosive running backs such as Jones, Derrick Henry, and Todd Gurley in his career year, so Jacobs will surely benefit from the more favorable situation. 


Jacobs finished as the RB19 last year and is being drafted as low-end RB1, with the Alabama product’s ADP falling at RB12. With both AJ Dillon and rookie Marshawn Lloyd pieces of the pie in this Packers backfield, Jacobs carries far more risk than reward at his third-round average draft position (ADP), especially as Jacobs isn’t a massive PPR threat. 


Jayden Reed (WR)

Love managed to support three fantasy-relevant receivers, as all three of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs averaged over 10 fantasy points per game last season, 


Of the terrifying trio, Reed is typically being drafted first in fantasy leagues going in round six or seven, as his Deebo Samuel-esque versatility will return WR3 or FLEX value with upside for more going into the former second-round pick’s sophomore season. 


Reed finished as WR25 as a rookie, but his ADP is in the WR36 range, controversially being drafted behind players such as Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, and Zay Flowers, despite the Michigan State product averaging 17.4 points per game from Week 10 onward last season, in a sizzling stretch that included only one game in single digits while only missing one game as a rookie. 


The concern about Reed comes with Watson missing eight games a season ago, drawing concerns about his usage being sustained as LaFleur’s go-to gadget guy, though the slot made touches easy to come by for Reed in 2023. 


However, in the middle of drafts, as long as the versatile Reed continues to see an uptick in usage out of the backfield, the 24-year-old could be a league-winner this season. 


Christian Watson (WR)

As for Watson, the physical traits are absolutely there but the 2022 second-round pick has struggled to stay on the field to open his NFL career. Watson has missed 11 games in two seasons, contributing to his eighth-round and WR40 ADP, with pass-catchers such as Courtland Sutton, Rome Odunze, Marquise Brown, and Xavier Worthy being drafted in the same area as Watson. 


Watson, at his price tag, could return value, especially just a season removed from scoring nine total touchdowns, especially as his own rapport with Love dazzled in Weeks 12 and 13, corralling 12 passes and three total touchdowns in the games, before getting re-injured and missing the rest of the season. 


As long as the 25-year-old North Dakota State alumnus can stay on the field, his prowess as a deep-threat could prove fruitful any given Sunday, especially in an offense that will be no stronger to the end zone in 2024. However, the injury history is alarming, so like Jacobs, Watson is a dangerous selection for fantasy owners.


Romeo Doubs (WR)

As for Doubs, the 24-year-old finished as WR36 a year ago, reaching the end zone eight times. Doubs tends to excel in the red zone, as according to ESPN, Doubs had the fourth-most red-zone targets among wide receivers a year ago, proving that fantasy value is there despite the presence of both Reed and Watson. 


The 2022 fourth-round pick was especially dominant to open 2023, scoring three touchdowns in four games en route to averaging a blazing 15.1 fantasy points per game, though Watson only suited up in one of those games. 


Watson being healthy relegates Doubs to being third on the depth chart in Green Bay, but history suggests it is a good bet to draft Doubs, especially with the third-year man being a fixture in rounds 13 and 14 at a WR52 ADP. 


Despite Green Bay having no alpha-dog WR1, all three of Doubs, Watson, and Reed showed up with Love under center a year ago, as all three racked up a target share over 17.1%, which bodes well as Green Bay’s receivers have the second-easiest schedule in 2024. However, in a loaded young offense, the trio may not be the only rosterable pass-catchers for the Cheeseheads. 


Others

Rookies Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave showcased flashes of their potential in their freshman campaigns in the pros. Despite the immense competition in the Packers’ wide receiver room, Wicks has managed to develop a riveting rapport with Love which saw Wicks rack up six or more targets in three of his final four games in 2023. 


Wicks’ connection with Love grew in 2024, as the former fifth-rounder hauled in a long 65-yard touchdown from Love to kick off preseason action. 


In the case of Musgrave, his 12.7% target share is set to soar going into year two, as the former second-rounder finished as the TE31 despite missing six games last season. Musgrave’s strongest showing of his rookie season came in the Wild Card Round against Dallas, so momentum could fall on the Oregon State product’s side. 


Both Wicks and Musgrave are late-round upside picks in fantasy leagues which could reap benefits as further opportunity arises, but at the moment there is too much competition on the depth chart to trust either second-year stud on a consistent basis. 


While there are so many unknowns for the Packers offense, especially for fantasy owners to contemplate, but this offense will be among the NFL's most prolific in 2024.


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