New Faces in new places - Corey Davis
Corey Davis, the former 5th overall pick in the NFL draft, has recently signed with the New York Jets. Davis hasn't lived up to 5th overall pick status, but the former Titan put up a career year in 2020 with 65 catches for 984 yards and 5 TDs opposite of A.J. Brown.
However, Davis will likely offer more to the Jets than he will to your fantasy team. Davis benefitted from ideal conditions such as the efficiency of the run-first offense, and while he didn't ONLY face weaker coverage, he certainly benefitted from A.J. Brown taking some coverage away.
In New York, he has a good chance to be asked to be the WR1 for the team, a role in which he has not succeeded in the past. Furthermore, the aforementioned ideal conditions are unlike to be repeated on the Jets.
If the Jets stick with Sam Darnold in 2020, Davis will be playing with a QB whose career average TD% is 3.7% (including an abysmal 2.5% rate in 2020) and whose career yards/pass attempt is 6.6. Compared to Tannehill's 6.9% TD rate and 7.9 yards/attempt in 2020, signs point to worse QB play for Davis.
Even if the Jets decide to draft a QB, it would still be hard to replicate Corey Davis' 2020 QB play. Out of 58 rookie QBs who have played more than 8 games, none have reached Tannehill's 2020 TD%, and only 5 have reached or passed Tannehill's 2020 yards/attempt.
Additionally, it can be hard to adjust to a new team and new situations. Since 2010, 13 "number 2" WRs (WRs who were the secondary target of their previous team) changed teams after a top 36 fantasy season and played more than 8 games for their new team. The average PPG for the WR on the old team was 12.76. The average PPG on the new team? Only 11.5. Across the board in nearly every stat, WRs who switch teams tend to do worse. Corey Davis had a solid 2020 season, but it was only good for WR30.
Now, it's looking like that was his peak. New York might have paid up for Corey Davis, but he's a sell in fantasy football. Worse QB play, tougher matchups, and historical data show us that Davis is unlikely to repeat his 2020 season, which wasn't even that great.
- Akash Patel (@yzr_fantasy)
Writer for @justaskfelix