It is always hard to trust a player when they enter a new team, with a new offensive scheme, and entirely different weapons surrounding them. In this article, we will explore whether some of these players should be trusted or not on their new teams.
This off-season, we watched the Arizona Cardinals pull off highway robbery in order to acquire DeAndre Hopkins, an indisputable top-3 wide receiver in the NFL today. I mean, David Johnson (who is on a horrible contract), a 2020 second-round pick, 2021 fourth round pick, for Hopkins and a 2020 fourth-round pick. An absolute bargain. Regardless of the real life benefits of adding a player like Hopkins, I think this is the year he falls outside of the top-5 WRs, possibly even more.
If you remember, last year there was a star WR traded. Odell Beckham to the Browns. At the time, Baker, much like Murray, was the OROY, a rising star destined to be great with the acquisition of Odell. Yet Baker and Odell couldn't make it work, simply because they did not already have a rapport with one another. While the Browns and Cardinals are two different organizations, the similarities are there between Baker and Murray for their sophomore year. I am not out on Murray yet, but there is the risk involved in his price. It will be hard enough for them to establish a rapport with COVID-19 setting team activities back.
Looking into Hopkins, he had a 30.9% target share in 2019. In Arizona, they run with 4-wide sets to spread the ball out. Both Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald saw 100+ targets last year, so Hopkins will clearly have more competition for targets. The competition for targets (like Odell last year with Landry) plus the added concern of not developing a rapport with Murray is enough to make me out on Hopkins next season.
You can sense a common trend here. Much like Hopkins, I have doubts on whether Diggs and Allen can establish a good rapport. While I love this move from a real life perspective, I am not sure it helps Diggs in fantasy. I am not sold on Josh Allen as a pure passer, and I think Diggs is downgrading from Kirk Cousins to Josh Allen.
Diggs is a precise route runner, and Kirk is a precise passer, which makes them good for each other. But Allen is not a polished passer. While we saw him succeed with castaway John Brown last season, I don't think he will be consistent enough to keep Diggs' value high. He will have his big weeks, but I don't see Diggs being a consistent WR2 this season.
I am all over this move. The Falcons let Hooper walk and then decided to trade a second-round pick for Hayden Hurst. Many forget that Hurst was a first round pick, and is very talented. Mark Andrews broke out in Baltimore, causing Hurst to be the forgotten man in their deep tight end room.
In Atlanta, Hurst is walking into plenty of opportunities. Through Dan Quinn's seasons as a head coach, the Falcons TE position has had at least a 15% target share. Dirk Koetter's offenses have ranged from 18% to a 21% target share over the past 5 seasons. Last year, despite being behind Mark Andrews, Hurst was top-8 in yards per target (8.7) and yards per route (2.44).
We can expect the Falcons to have at least 600 passing attempts again, which would give Hurst around 108 targets (at a 18% target share), which I consider his floor. Using last year's stats, this would result in around 939 yards, which would be more than top-5 tight ends like Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz from last year. I think Hurst is a guaranteed top-10 tight end with potential for more.