Robert Woods could finish as the WR1 overall and the fantasy football community would still find a way to undervalue him. Year after year, he provides great value to the owners who drafted him. In 2019 he was drafted as the WR17 and finished as the WR14, 2018 drafted as the WR42 and finished as the WR11, 2017 was going undrafted and finished as the WR19 in PPG. He he has outperformed his ADP in every year that he has been a member of this Rams offense and expect that trend to continue in 2020.
A tale of 2 seasons
I feel like a broken record as I bring up this topic yet again, the Rams were a different team down the stretch of 2019. We had become so accustomed to their 3WR sets dominating opposing defenses and then all of a sudden the offensive line couldn't block. That's when we saw Sean McVay switch to primarily 2 TE sets. The reason for this was to add another capable blocker onto the field to help the O-line block. That's when we saw this offense take off.
The switch happened around the bye week and to prove that this benefited Woods here are his splits:
Yeah, it's pretty clear that this new scheme benefitted Woods. You might be asking yourself, why does this scheme matter for 2020? Like I stated before, the 2TE set is used to add an extra blocker. Last year the Rams were the 31st ranked offensive line in the NFL. What did they do to improve of that this offseason... nothing. If Sean McVay wants to give his QB any time in the pocket, he''s going to have to stick to this new scheme. I have also heard the argument that the Rams played an easy schedule to finish out the season which caused an influx in production. Thats not the case. Here were Woods' matchups in the weeks he was the WR6.
Top Tier production against top tier corners.
It's not easy to find a guy in the 4th-5th round that you can almost guarantee a minimum of 140 targets. That's what you're getting from Woods. It blows my mind that guys like Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton, and AJ Brown are going ahead of him. My philosophy in fantasy football is that volume trumps everything else (outside of David Montgomery). Robert Woods is going to see an elite amount of volume this year, in fact I would not be shocked if he finishes in the top 3 target leaders. Draft Woods with all of the confidence in the world in rounds 4-5!
I don't see the departure of Cooks having a huge impact on Cooks. However over the past two years Cooks has averaged 6.4 targets/gm. I think it provides a little bit more safety and upside on a weekly basis for Woods. It's likely that those targets end up going to Josh Reynolds as I see him having a sneaky year.
Many are still certain that Kupp is the solidified WR1 in this offense. Well I disagree. Kupp is a slot receiver and when you have 2 TE's on the field there is no slot. This forced Kupp out of his comfort zone, playing out wide. Kupp and Woods' role basically flipped once the Rams changed their scheme. Check it out:
If the Rams stay in this scheme I don't see Kupp being the WR1 in this offense or being as successful as he was last year. The only thing keeping his fantasy numbers relevant over the last 8 weeks was his ridiculous 14% TD rate. Kupp should still be good this year but there is no way that I would be taking him over Robert Woods.
Despite the Rams offense having a big down year in 2019 Woods was still able to find success. Why? Because of volume. Jared Goff lead the league in total pass attempts giving Woods and this receiving core all of the opportunity in the world. I expect a similar trend in 2020 as they are in possibly the best offensive division in football and have quite a few non division games that could shootout. With Cooks and Gurley gone Jared Goff is going to have to rely heavily on Woods this year. It's time for Mr. Woods to put the league on notice!
I am attempting to grab Woods in every league I can whether it's dynasty or redraft. He is going to be a volume monster and his 4-5th round ADP does not represent the current value I think he has. Last year I grabbed Chris Godwin in the fifth round and the payout was amazing. Fantasy Football is all about finding the best possible value. If you can get a guy who you see finishing top 10 as the 20th WR on the board, the value that provides is tremendous. Draft Robert Woods, I promise you won't regret it!
100 Rush Yards
1 Rush TD
283 Fantasy Points