top of page
Search

Steer Clear: FIve Players to Avoid When on the Clock

Writer's picture: Jason KandelJason Kandel


The NFL season is mere weeks away from kicking things off, so we are in the midst of peak draft season. As preseason action and training camp reports garner more buzz, fantasy owners may find themselves mulling some difficult decisions during the draft.


Every year, fantasy football gold mines and land mines establish themselves throughout the season, and these five players fit into the latter, so try to go a different direction when you’re on the clock. 


Stefon Diggs (WR)


Throughout his tenure in Buffalo, Diggs was touted as one of the most consistent talents at the wide receiver position, being a consistent fixture in the first round of fantasy drafts just a season ago. 


The 30-year-old was WR9 in total fantasy points and WR15 in points per game lat season as Josh Allen’s main weapon in the Bills’ high-powered passing game, but following Diggs’ trade to Houston, his fantasy prospects don’t seem as clear-cut as in Buffalo. 


Diggs will now share targets with two of the NFL’s most dynamic young pass-catchers in Nico Collins and Tank Dell, both of whom have more established connections with CJ Stroud and should eat into Diggs’ 29.5% target share in 2023. Both Dell and Collins had target shares north of 23% last season, and Stroud should continue to target both youngsters more frequently than Diggs. 


The most alarming aspect about the 2020 receiving leader’s fantasy stock came from his quality of targets. Diggs was 27th in the league in yards per route run (YPRR), whereas both Collins and Dell were in the top 20 among all receivers, with Collins second only to Tyreek Hill.


Another cause for concern with the four-time Pro Bowler is the fact that he was not the only Pro Bowl skill player the Texans added this offseason, as general manager Nick Caserio also struck another blockbuster deal to land Bengals running back Joe Mixon to add even more juice to an already-explosive offense. 


Wide receivers do not tend to have long shelf lives in football, and with Diggs now on the wrong side of 30, his fifth round average draft position (ADP) as a WR2 feels a bit steep. 


D’Andre Swift (RB)


Swift was a fantasy football gold mine in 2023, finishing as the RB20 in his lone season with the Eagles despite his mid-round ADP. 


The biggest flaw to the former Georgia star’s game was his lack of touchdown production, reaching the end zone only five times last season due to the art of the “tush push”. While Swift should see positive regression in the touchdown department in 2024, red flags are flying about his volume. 


The 25-year-old signed a three-year, $24 million contract to join No. 1 overall selection Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears this past offseason, as Swift’s already-murky fantasy prospects were muddied even further.


Swift was running behind the best offensive line of his career in Philadelphia, and the unit in Chicago is noticeably weaker, and Khalil Herbert will still have a role out of the backfield.


Adding to the 2020 second-round pick’s downward trend with fantasy owners comes from the star-studded crop of weapons for Williams in the Windy City. Swift will compete for touches with DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, and the other two skill position splashes the Bears made this offseason; Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen. 


Swift doesn’t particularly have home-run hitting speed or a knack for making defenders miss either, as his 19.7% missed tackle rate ranked 38th in the NFL, behind players such as Justice Hill, Alexander Mattison, and Kendre Miller. 


In a league where usage is king, there are far more consistent options than Swift as your RB2, such as David Montgomery, James Conner, and Rhamondre Stevenson. 



Travis Kelce (TE)


A bit of a surprise, as Kelce has been a longtime fixture in starting lineups for fantasy owners, but it seems like we are at the point where Kelce’s age has started to catch up with him. 


Last season, Kelce finished as the TE3, despite missing two contests for Kansas City. However, at 34 years old, Kelce certainly looked like he lost a step as the nine-time Pro Bowler only had two contests where he racked up over 100 receiving yards. 


The three-time Super Bowl champion has the most competition for targets he’s had since Tyreek Hill was traded, with offseason acquisitions Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Xavier Worthy to cut into Kelce’s 22.7% target share from 2023. 


To make matters worse for Kelce, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that Rashee Rice will be suspended by the NFL this season, adding an extra mouth to feed to the equation for the league’s most explosive offense. 


Kelce is typically being drafted in the third round of fantasy drafts, a perplexing decision when Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, and Evan Engram are all being drafted at similar values to the future hall-of-famer. 


While Kelce’s volume and rapport with Mahomes are unlikely to ever fade, the addition of two speedy pass-catchers and his age provide far more risk than reward on draft night. 


Drake London (WR)


The Falcons’ offense has garnered some of the most buzz this offseason across the fantasy football world for the signing of Kirk Cousins, a significant upgrade over every Falcons’ signal-caller since Matt Ryan was traded. 


London finished as the WR36 in total fantasy points and the WR44 in points per game last season, yet is being drafted as a WR1 in most fantasy leagues. To make matters even more alarming, London is a second-round pick, often being drafted in the same tier as Chris Olave, Nico Collins, and Davante Adams. 


While London’s 23.3% target share is awfully encouraging, his 1.87 yards per route run are 32nd among all receivers, which is lower than both Noah Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. 


London also plays in a run-first offense which will run through Bijan Robinson under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, so the former No. 8 pick might see the bulk of his fantasy production come in the red zone due to his 6 '4, 213 pound frame. 


The USC product has managed to be a pedestrian fantasy option through his first two seasons, and the optimism and upside is palpable in a new situation, however London is being drafted at his ceiling and is not worth that draft capital. 


Rachaad White (RB)


To cap off this list is yet another 2023 league-winner in Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White. Due to his fruitful PPR production, White finished 2023 as the RB4 in total points, only finishing behind Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne. 


However, offensive coordinator Dave Canales is now gone, and has been replaced with Liam Coen, a play-caller who yielded career numbers with Cam Akers in Los Angeles. 


Despite the change in play-callers, one of the biggest concerns with White is his lack of efficiency from a season ago, as his 2.63 yards after contact per attempt and 3.6 yards per carry were both 62nd across all NFL running backs. 


Tampa Bay also drafted Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft to potentially push White for playing time, as the Arizona State product is unlikely to see the same usage as in 2023. 


White was also a main benefactor of Baker Mayfield’s career season under Canales in 2023, so production at the quarterback position could be unsustainable for the Bucs. 


The former third-round pick plays in an offense where Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will see more volume, and Cade Otton and Jalen McMillan will play a role as well, so White would need to see a significant uptick in both his air and ground production to return on a lofty fourth-round investment. 


526 views

Comments


  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Pinterest
  • Tumblr Social Icon
  • Instagram
  • X
  • YouTube
  • TikTok
  • Facebook

© 2020 Fantasy Football Analyst

bottom of page