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The Hardest Fantasy Players to Rank for 2024



As fantasy football managers prepare for the upcoming 2024 fantasy draft season, draft boards and rankings change by the day. Some guys at the top of their respective position groups like Christian McCaffrey and Ceedee Lamb are easy to rank. However, there are others who are particularly difficult to predict how their seasons will go. After putting together my team-by-team projections, where I stat out every player on all 32 NFL teams, there are three players who I believe are the hardest fantasy players to rank.   


De'Von Achane (RB, Miami Dolphins)


Arguments For:


  1. Explosive Speed and Big-Play Potential Achane's standout trait is his remarkable speed. With that 4.3 speed, Achane consistently broke away from defenders and turned short runs into long touchdowns, ranking first in explosive run rate, first in yards per attempt among qualifying RBs, second in yards after contact per attempt, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in fantasy points per game.  

  2. Dynamic Role in Miami’s Offense The Dolphins’ offensive scheme, known for its explosiveness and innovative play-calling, is designed to exploit speed and agility (see Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert). Achane’s skill set fits perfectly within this system, allowing him to utilize his speed in space. Miami's offense in 2023 ranked first in total yards, first in passing yards, sixth in rushing yards, and second in scoring.

  3. Opportunity for Significant Workload Despite having Tyreek and Waddle, and last year’s passing yardage leader in Tua Tagovailoa, Miami does not shy away from running the ball in ‘23 (ranked 15th in rushing attempts). And based on Achane’s efficiency metrics, he doesn’t need much volume to succeed. Achane played at least 41% of the snaps in eight games last season - he averaged 14.2 touches, 113.8 total yards, and 1.4 TDs. With only an oft-injured, 32-year old Raheem Mostert ahead of him, Achane should be in line for increased work this year. Not to mention, Miami ranked fifth in RB targets last year, many of which will be directed at Achane.


Arguments Against:


  1. Not Clear Starter Despite his talent, Achane still shares the backfield with an established runner in Raheem Mostert, who is coming off a year in which he led the league in touchdowns with 21. While injuries may come for Mostert eventually, he still figures to be the starter Week 1 and handle a significant amount of work. This sharing of the workload requires Achane to be just as efficient as he was last year, leaving little room for error. 

  2. Injury Risk Achane is a smaller back at 5'9, 188 lbs, which does not scream workhorse back. In 2023, he missed six games due to injury, and played just 4% of the snaps in another. If he does see increased volume, as many hope, his injury risk increases with it. 

  3. High Draft Cost This is not a late-round pick type of guy. Achane is currently being drafted in the third round, around guys like Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne, and Isaiah Pacheco, all of whom will be their team’s unquestioned lead back pushing for 300 total touches. It is highly unlikely that Achane comes close to 300 total touches, meaning that you are praying for touchdowns and high efficiency marks to justify his cost.


Conclusion

De'Von Achane presents a high-risk, high-reward option for fantasy football managers in 2024. His explosive playmaking ability and fit within the Dolphins’ high-octane offense make him an appealing choice. However, the challenges of competition for touches and potential injury risks make his high draft cost tough to swallow. Drafting Achane is not for the weak, but he could turn out to be a league-winner more than maybe any other player in the NFL. He is currently my RB11 in both ½ and full-PPR formats, and I would feel comfortable selecting him in the third round, although I would prefer him to be my team’s RB2. It also wouldn’t be a bad idea to add rookie RB Jaylen Wright to your roster as a super cheap handcuff.



Stefon Diggs (WR, Houston Texans)


Arguments For:


  1. High Historical Output Although he’s 30 years old, Diggs still seems to have some gas left in the tank. He’s put together six straight seasons of 1,000+ yards and has accumulated 100+ catches in five of those six seasons. He’s also been an underrated red zone threat, averaging nearly nine TDs over the past seven seasons as part of two different teams.  

  2. Dynamic Houston Offense CJ Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory in ‘23, on his way to throwing for 4,100+ yards and 23 TDs. Stroud is clearly the face of the franchise and may be leaned on even more in his sophomore campaign. He is the odds-on favorite to lead the league in passing yards and could push for the league-lead in passing attempts. There could be enough volume to go around in that scenario to appease Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell.

  3. Valuable Role in HOU Diggs may have to compete for targets with other talented pass catchers, but he is likely to be used differently than Collins or Dell. Collins averaged over 16 yards per catch (YPC) in ‘23, while Dell ranked 12th in average depth of target (aDOT). These metrics indicate that these two receivers may be used more as down field threats, whereas Diggs (11.1 YPC, 59th in aDOT) may be used mainly in the middle of the field on short-yardage, and higher completion throws, making him a valuable full-PPR option.   


Arguments Against:


  1. Increased Competition Diggs was the clear alpha in Buffalo over the past couple of seasons, easily outpacing Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Co. in nearly every statistical category. This won’t be the case in Houston, where rising stars Collins and Dell figure to take massive chunks of the target share. And don’t forget about Dalton Schultz and fellow newcomer, Joe Mixon, both of whom should see ample targets go their way. 

  2. Adjusting to New Team Diggs has historically been an emotional and passionate player who demands consistent targets from his QB. In Buffalo, targets were usually consistent due to the lack of quality options behind him. However, that is not a problem that Houston has. Diggs likely won’t be force-fed targets, nor see consistent production weekly due to the presence of Collins, Dell, Schultz, and Mixon. Will Diggs be agreeable to relinquishing that alpha receiver role he’s grown accustomed to?

  3. Second Half Struggles Over each of the past two seasons, Diggs has seemed to hit a wall once the second half of the season comes around. Over the final seven games of ‘22, Diggs produced just a single 100-yard receiving performance. Over the final eight games of ‘23, he was somehow even worse - finishing as the WR47 (½ PPR) over that span and having only one game of 80+ yards and under 50 yards in 6/8 games. 


Conclusion

Stefon Diggs remains a high-caliber fantasy football asset with his move to the Houston Texans, given his elite historical resume as part of one of the best offenses in the NFL. However, the challenges of adjusting to a new team with more mouths to feed around him complicate his outlook and make him a riskier draft selection. His range of outcomes is fairly wide, making him a pass for me at his current WR19, 40th overall price tag in full-PPR formats. I’d much rather grab Tank Dell a few rounds later. Diggs is currently my WR32 (½ PPR) | WR27 (full-PPR). 



Rashee Rice (WR, Kansas City Chiefs)


Arguments For:


  1. Elite Rookie Season Rice’s season-long stats look very good at first glance (79/938/7), but when you dig into his second-half explosion, you start to see an elite receiver. Once he saw over 50% of the snaps consistently (starting in Week 7), Rice was the WR13 (in ½ PPR). From Weeks 7-17, his 17-game pace of 99/1,178/8 would’ve had him finish as the WR11. He clearly earned the trust of Patrick Mahomes and arguably acted as the go-to option over Travis Kelce. 

  2. Chiefs Offensive Bounceback Playing in the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, is typically a boon for production. Last season, the Chiefs finished 15h in scoring and 9th in yardage after ranking 1st, 5th, 6th, 4th, 1st in scoring and 1st, 6th,1st, 3rd, 1st in total yardage in the previous five seasons. Rice had a WR1-type season despite playing in the worst Chiefs offense in a half-decade.

  3. Deflated Draft Cost Despite finishing the second half of the season as a top-20 WR, Rice is currently being drafted as the WR36 (½ PPR) | WR35 (full-PPR). His talent is a bargain at that price. 


Arguments Against:


  1. Increased Competition Rice thrived next to marginal talent and an aging Travis Kelce. However, 2024 brings with it a few new explosive weapons for Mahomes in Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy. Brown has proven his big-play ability in Baltimore and Arizona and has first round pedigree. Worthy, a first rounder himself, just broke the 40 yard dash record at the NFL Combine this spring and has shown flashes of stardom in camp already. Kelce also returns and is looking to have a rebound season. 

  2. Looming Suspension No suspension has been imposed yet, but Rice’s off the field antics over the offseason puts his availability early on in the season in jeopardy. A multi-game suspension is likely.

  3. Lack of Judgment/Focus Off the field, Rice has already shown that he doesn’t make the best decisions. His legal situation does not revolve around just one incident, but three separate ones (hit-and-run, alleged assault, and alleged involvement with a shooting at SMU). In terms of on-the-field lack of focus, Rice dropped eight passes last season, good for second most in the entire league.  


Conclusion

Rashee Rice presents an exciting opportunity for fantasy football managers in 2024 due to his explosive playmaking ability, the benefits of playing in the Chiefs’ high-powered offense, and his deflated draft day cost. However, drafting Rice is also a risky one due to increased competition for targets and the risk of a possible multi-game suspension. Rice could pan out to be the steal of the draft, but you’ll need to be prepared to manage some fairly large risks. There are a lot of question marks, but his upside is worth the gamble in my opinion, even if he does miss 2-4 games. I have him as my WR25 (½ PPR) | WR24 (full-PPR).



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