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THe nExt Derrick Henry?

e of drafts in unreal this year and finding the right guy can and will win you your Derrick Henry pretty much came out of nowhere last season in terms of fantasy production. At the end of the 2018 season Henry showed flashes of his potential gaining 585 yards on just 87 carries (6.72 YPC) in weeks 14-17. However, prior to that he was pretty abysmal averaging a mere 3.7 yards per carry over 13 games with very little usage in the passing game. So it makes sense that during the 2019 fantasy draft season his ADP was 38.6. Fantasy owners recognized his potential to be a very good running back but showed little faith in his ability to be a RB1 which was certainly a logical viewpoint seeing as he was a very difficult player to judge. Little did anyone know that Henry would become the fifth ranked running back in total fantasy points (PPR scoring) and lead the league in rushing yards. This year Henry has an ADP of about 7.0. Henry jumped 31 spots in terms of perceived value in just one season. So who is that guy going to be in the 2020 season? Who is going to be the ultimate value in fantasy football this year?

The first potential guy I would like to mention is Henry’s teammate AJ Brown. Through ten games last year, Brown was averaging 2.7 receptions, 44.6 yards, 0.3 touchdowns per game. At a 16 game pace, Brown would have totaled 43 receptions for 714 yards and five touchdowns. Solid numbers, especially for a rookie wide receiver as rookies, of all positions, tend to struggle in their transition to the league. However, from week 11 to the end of the season Brown turned into a different receiver entirely. Brown averaged 4.2 receptions, 100.8 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. At a 16 game pace, Brown would have totaled an absolutely insane 67 receptions for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns. This would have made him the WR2 for all wide receivers in total fantasy points. Similar to Henry, Brown had ridiculous, unsustainable efficiency but this stretch showed the true talent that Brown possesses. His mid-fourth round ADP makes him seem like a massive sleeper this year.

The next guy I want to bring attention to is Devin Singletary. Singletary didn’t become the full-time starter until week nine of the 2019 season. However, once he became the starting back he did not look back. From week nine on, Singletary averaged 75.4 rushing yards, 2.5 receptions for 17 yards and 0.1 rushing and receiving touchdowns. At a 16 game pace, Singletary would have put up 1206 rushing yards, 40 receptions for 272 yards, and four total touchdowns. He would have been the RB18 in terms of total fantasy points. This is even with Singletary hardly getting any touchdowns at all. Singletary, unlike Henry or Brown, actually had a pretty realistic efficiency at 4.60 YPC which, to me, shows how undervalued he is being in drafts this year. Zack Moss might have some impact but if Singletary is given a workhorse role he could thrive.

Calvin Ridley has the potential to explode this year if given the opportunity. Ridley definitely had a sophomore slump to start the season last year as he merely averaged 4.1 receptions for 53.3 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. Through 16 games this would have totaled 66 receptions for 866 yards and nine touchdowns. The touchdown number was great, however Ridley’s receiving statistics outside of that clearly suffered. Now let’s look at how he ended the season. From week eight to week fourteen (Ridley did not play in weeks 15, 16, 17), Ridley averaged 5.7 receptions for 82.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. This would have resulted, on a 16 game pace, in 91 receptions for 1315 yards and eight touchdowns. Ridley would have been the WR4 tied with Cooper Kupp. His ADP of 45 overall and WR18 is definitely not representative of his potential.

The value in the middle of drafts in unreal this year and finding the right guy can and will win you your league.



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