Can you BELIEVE it's already Week TWO of the 2021 NFL Season! It got here so quickly and more ready than ever to help guide you guys to a championship. So let's dive into some starts and avoid!
Also, rather than going with the easy picks for starts and avoids, I try and focus on important decisions that fantasy managers actually need to make. Must starts and obvious sits within reason will not be on my lists.
A START is a suggested lineup move based on matchup, and an AVOID is quite the opposite. It is NOT a must enforce. So if I recommend avoiding Josh Jacobs, and the only player you have to replace him is someone like Devontae Booker, use your judgement and realize that a backup who won't see touches is not a better option than a starting QB.
That being said, lets win some leagues! 🏆
START Mike Williams vs DAL - The point total for this game is currently sitting at 55.5, which tied for the highest this week. Plus last week, Dak and Herbert combined for over 100 pass attempts, so I'm expecting a shootout. On top of all that, not only was Mike Williams used as the teams #2 Target, but he also used as more than just a deep threat for once. He lined up out wide 90% of the time, but 7/12 of his targets were under 10 yards. He's a solid WR3/FLEX with WR1 upside this week!
START Damien Harris @ NYJ - Last week against the Dolphins, Harris took 25 touches for 117 Yards. Including 3 Targets, which were unexpected, especially with James White there. Ultimately, a costly fumble to lose the game might hurt his usage, but he is certainly the best runner on the team. It's clear by the 53% snap share that the Patriots feel that way too. The Jets defense is one of the WORST in the league and I'd be willing to bet on a positive game script.
START Nyheim Hines vs LAR - If you saw the Rams defense play on Sunday night, their philosophy is too allow the short play and take away the big gains. Now considering Nyheim Hines acted as the team's #1 WR (21.1% Target Share) and this will almost surely be a game where the Colts play from behind. Perfect opportunity for Hines to see a ton of targets and provide some great PPR value!
START Marquez Callaway @ CAR - As mentioned in my Buy/Sell Post, Callaway significantly more routes than any other WR, as well as more routes than Alvin Kamara. Where he fell short was getting just two targets. This was a blowout game from the start and Winston only threw the ball 20 Times. Plus Callaway saw a healthy amount of Jaire Alexander, who is just easier to avoid. Be confident in a decent showing from Callaway here as a WR2/FLEX in a good matchup against Carolina.
START Ja'Marr Chase @ CHI - After a "troublesome" offseason filled with minor drama and drops, Chase made a strong Week One statement going 5 for 101 and a TD. Not only that, but Chase played more snaps and had more targets than both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. He is operating as this team's WR1 from the start. A matchup against a battered down Chicago defense isn't a bad thing either. Just ask Cooper Kupp or Van Jefferson!
DESPERATE STARTS
- Javonte Williams @ JAC ; A perfect 50/50 split last week between him and Gordon, but considering how the Jaguars got ran over by the TEXANS I like the chances of them running the clock out. There is some risk because it could be the Melvin Gordon show, but at his best he could be a solid RB2 this week! 💪
- Kenyan Drake @ PIT ; Jon Gruden supposedly wants to give Peyton Barber some early down work, which sucks for Drake knowing he won't be a workhorse. But even still, game script will be in Drake's favor and without Jacobs he should still operate as the 1A at the very least.
- Dalton Schultz @ LAC ; I already talked about the shootout potential for this game with the 55.5 Point Total, but what's even more interesting is that with Michael Gallup out, it frees up some additional targets elsewhere. Schultz had the slight edge on Jarwin in Week One, and if that continues here he could provide some sneaky value!
AVOID Brandon Aiyuk @ PHI - The matchup isn't bad, well actually it's pretty good. But what isn't good is Aiyuk playing just 47% of snaps and not seeing a single target. Shannahan has said that Aiyuk is not in the "dog house" and that was nursing a hamstring injury from the 3rd Preseason Game. But I can't throw Aiyuk back into my lineups until he proves that he'll be on the field.
AVOID James Robinson vs DEN - Jrob played 64% of the snaps, yet he only had 8 touches compared to Carlos Hyde who had 11 Touches on 34% of snaps. The way the Jaguars have chosen to use Robinson this year is not ideal at all. I can't start a guy on a terrible team seeing less than 10 touches a game. Plus this matchup against Denver is not great at all.
AVOID Ty'Son Williams vs KC - Considering the Ravens just lost to the Raiders, I don't have a ton of confidence that they will hold a positive game script for Williams to get his work. Plus Greg Roman himself has said that this backfield 100% be a committee and they could use as many as four different backs. Latavius Murray owned the second half of that Raider game, and Freeman will likely take away some targets. I'm avoiding Williams with limited upside...
AVOID Mike Davis @ TB - Davis saw a healthy 75% of snaps in week one, and even saw 15+ touches. All great signs of solid season ahead. BUT, we saw what this Tampa Bay defense did to Zeke, and I'm not sure if I'm willing to bet on Davis coming through here. I'm sitting Davis if possible, but if you need to start him, he could save his value in the passing game (17.1% Target Share in Week One).
AVOID Mark Ingram @ CLE - Not exactly sure what the Texans are doing, but hey power to them. Ingram had 26 Carries in his Texans debut, and largely in part to a positive game script. But the chances of him seeing that work here and having a good game along with it are slim. Don't fall for the trap!
LOWER EXPECTATIONS
- Elijah Mitchell @ PHI ; Ah yes, Shannahan's sweetheart of the week. Trey Sermon will be active for this game, and unfortunately, Mitchell does not have the benefit of going against a piss poor defense like the Lions. Don't get it twisted, this is a committee.
- Devin Singletary @ MIA ; After seeing a large portion of snaps in Week One, Singletary finds himself in a tougher position now that Zack Moss is expected to be active. The split in this backfield is still unknown so I'm erring on the side of caution.
- Robby Anderson vs NO ; Robby was 4th on his own team when it came to targets, and that's behind CMC, D.J. Moore, AND Terrace Marshall. Robby has been given the outside role and will be reliant on big plays for value. Which is not something I want to bet on this week.
Good Luck as always, and I'll see you back here for Week 3! 😉