Rather than going with the easy picks for starts and avoids, I try and focus on important decisions that fantasy managers actually need to make. Must starts and obvious sits within reason will not be on my lists.
A START is a suggested lineup move based on matchup, and an AVOID is quite the opposite. It is NOT a must enforce. So if I recommend avoiding Josh Jacobs, and the only player you have to replace him is someone like Devontae Booker, use your judgement and realize that a backup who won't see touches is not a better option than a starting QB.
That being said, lets win some leagues! 🏆
START Marvin Jones vs ARI - Surprisingly, at the age of 31, MJJ has been the only consistent part of this offense. He has averaged 10 Targets a game over two weeks, which have translated to 18.7 and 17.5 Fantasy Points. Plus having an aDOT of over 15 Yards is great for his upside. I'm expecting his streak to continue against a Cardinals defense without Patrick Peterson as well as the fact that they will be playing from behind.
START Kenyan Drake vs MIA - I'm not certain this is the case, but this might be Drake's first "revenge game" against his former team. With Jacob's status in doubt again, Drake could see close to the 70% of snaps he did in Week Two. Peyton Barber will likely take away a lot of opportunity on the ground, but 6 Targets were encouraging for Drake and I could see him having a good game against a questionable Miami defense.
START Ty'Son Williams @ DET - I had my doubts about Ty'Son Williams, but he truly does look like the best RB in Baltimore. What's really encouraging for Williams and his play time is his pass blocking. If he can keep doing well and earn more reps there, it will translate to more value. He is consistently getting targeted and this Detroit defense has just been DECIMATED by RBs lately.
START Jakobi Meyers vs NO - This one is on the bolder side, but I do think this is a game where Meyers can actually shine. We know that Meyers has lead the team in targets over the last two weeks, and we have established that Mac Jones is not passing deep (6/69 of his passes have gone over 15 Yards). So as Meyers continues to play around 70% of his snaps from the slot, it puts him in a good spot for targets. Nelson Agholor will see Lattimore on the outside most likely, and Meyers will have the optimal matchup in the middle of the field in a game where Mac will actually have to pass the ball.
START Kenny Golladay vs ATL - We saw what Mike Evans did to the Falcons last week, and I see KG as a very similar player. Not only in terms of height, speed, contested catch ability, and where they line up, but they both actually have similar targets (Golladay 14 Targets - Evans 15 Targets). We also saw Golladay get pretty heated at Jason Garrett, and it's really underrated how little time Golladay has had with Daniel Jones. To sum up, they had a long week of practice together, Golladay is getting the targets, and the matchup is great. I also like Sterling Shepard as well.
DESPERATE STARTS
- Van Jefferson vs TB ; This game is expected to be a huge shootout, and since Week 1, Jefferson has really started to become a full time starter. His snaps from 69% in Week 1 to 92% in Week 2. He's got a great matchup on the perimeter likely against Jamel Dean while Woods sees Carlton Davis. Kupp also gets a good matchup in the slot against Ross Cockrell, but if the Bucs are smart they'll keep their speedy linebackers on Kupp as well. Jefferson might have the best matchup on the field and he won't need a ton of volume to produce.
- K.J. Osborn vs SEA ; Not only has Osborn looked great, but he's got the targets to back it up. He has 15 Targets through two games and he's got a fantastic matchup in a high scoring game against Seattle. Kirk is going to air it out again and Osborn makes for a great desperate play!
- Tony Pollard vs PHI ; Zeke's backup is no longer Zeke's backup. Regardless of how many snaps Zeke is playing in comparison, Pollard has out targeted him in both games this season. After seeing 7 Touches in Week 1, Pollard saw 16 Touches in Week 2! If Pollard continues to see work he will be well worth a desperate start on Monday night!
AVOID Jameis Winston @ NE - Through two games, Winston has yet to throw for more than 150 Yards. But now he has to travel to New England and play against that great defense. This may be more for people in 2 QB leagues, but I'm having my doubts on playing Winston this week at any capacity.
AVOID Darrell Henderson vs TB - Terrible matchup aside, Henderson didn't practice this week and it's going to come down to a game time decision. Sony Michel practiced the whole week and will likely see an expanded role no matter what. Plus, McVay said he would be "smart" with Hendy, meaning they will er on the side of caution. If you can afford to do so, sit Henderson this week.
AVOID Trey Sermon vs GB - Having been cleared from his concussion, Sermon is set to play at least more than one snap (probably) this week. All of Hasty, Mitchell, Mostert, and Wilson won't be playing in this game, so theoretically Sermon should see a healthy workload. But considering he was benched for a 6th round pick and his only touch has been a fumble, I'm just not willing to bet on the talent.
AVOID Will Fuller V vs LV - The matchup may be good, but the situation is anything but good. Jacoby Brissett is leading the charge on an offense that failed to score a single point last week. To make matters worse, Brissett's average yards per pass attempt last week was 4.2. 4.2 Yards on 40 Pass Attempts. That's absolutely atrocious and does not bode well for the deep threat that is Will Fuller. Plus it's his first game of the season after spending time away from the team.
AVOID Quintez Cephus vs BAL - Cephus has been really impressive lately, and after seeing 7 Targets in back to back weeks, and with Tyrell Williams out, it's hard to not be intrigued by him. But, he will likely see a lot of Marlon Humphrey on the outside, and this offense with run through Swift and Hockenson. Just not someone I want to take a chance on.
LOWER EXPECTATIONS
- Odell Beckham Jr. vs CHI ; OBJ has been labeled as a "Full Go" for Week 3, but I have my concerns after not seeing him on the field for over a year and him also being away from practice as he heals. Start him if you must, but set your expectations lower. This is not prime OBJ.
- Corey Davis @ DEN ; With Elijah Moore getting increased involvement, it's become hard to trust Corey Davis. Especially in a tough matchup against a stout Broncos defense. I just don't like the way Zach Wilson is trending and I'm going to avoid the situation until it becomes favorable.
- Devin Singletary vs WAS ; Singletary has looked fantastic so far, but Moss also looked good in his debut last week. Moss is their guy in the redzone, and if his role expands it could Singletary. Plus a matchup against the league's best front 7 isn't exactly appealing either...
Good Luck as always, and I'll see you back here for Week 3! 😉