Week 4 Fantasy Starts and Avoids!
Rather than going with the easy picks for starts and avoids, I try and focus on important decisions that fantasy managers actually need to make. Must starts and obvious sits within reason will not be on my lists. A START is a suggested lineup move based on matchup, and an AVOID is quite the opposite. It is NOT a must enforce. So if I recommend avoiding Josh Jacobs, and the only player you have to replace him is someone like Devontae Booker, use your judgement and realize that a backup who won't see touches is not a better option than a starting QB. That being said, lets win some leagues! 🏆 START Jaylen Waddle vs IND - After his season/career high numbers last week, Waddle is expected to continue his streak against the Colts with Jacoby under center. Not only did Waddle run 52 routes, but he also had 13 Targets which translated to a 26.5% target share. 80% of his routes with both Fuller and Parker on the field were ran in the slot, and with that expected to continue, he's got a juicy matchup against Kenny Moore, who has been great as a run stuffer, but pretty bad in coverage. Jacoby Brissett averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt also bodes well for the short targets that Waddle saw last week!
START Zack Moss vs HOU - Moss is currently 6th in the entire league in Red Zone touches, and that's with being a healthy scratch in Week One. His snaps also shot up from about 20% in Week 2 to over 50% in Week 3. He's been performing really well in these blowout games, and saw his touches go from 10 to 16 in a one week span as well. The Bills have a ton of momentum, and Moss can capitalize on a great game script and a good matchup on the ground.
START Chuba Hubbard @ DAL - For me, Chuba is a pure volume play this week. Once CMC went down last week, Chuba played 78% of the remaining snaps. Those snaps resulted in 16 Opportunities including 5 Targets. The matchup against Dallas isn't a great one, and Chuba really didn't look impressive other than one long run in open hole. His speed isn't as it appeared to be in college and I'm not labeling him a must start by any means. BUT, he should get the job done based off volume alone.
START Corey Davis vs TEN - While it may not be the biggest revenge game this week, I'm still so interested to watch Davis take on his old team. The Titans defense isn't nearly as intimidating as the Patriots or Broncos defenses, and with Elijah Moore out, Davis can operate as the true WR1 on the team, potentially adding even more to his high target share. That + a game script where they will be playing from behind is enough for me to start Davis, semi confidently this week.
START Odell Beckham Jr. @ MIN - In his first action in over a year, OBJ on just 64% of the snaps ran 34 Routes and took in a 29% target share. With Jarvis Landry still on IR, and with OBJ having a juicy matchup game against a team involved in more shootouts than any other team, I'm expecting a decent day for him. Especially since he's no longer limited in practice and will likely see increased snaps. DESPERATE STARTS - Brandon Aiyuk vs SEA ; He's back from the dead! After seemingly being in Shannahan's doghouse, Aiyuk caught a TD and went back to playing (close to) a full time offensive role! He ran 39 routes compared to Deebo's 42 routes, and jumped up to 86% of the offensive snaps after playing just 54% the previous week. That along with Kittle being banged and the Seahawks having one of the worst defenses in the league makes Aiyuk a potentially startable asset. - Evan Engram @ NO ; Last week, I talked about how the matchup for Jakobi Meyers in the slot would benefit him, and I was right! This week, Sterling Shepard is out, and although Kadarius Toney may get some work, Engram is his debut played about 70% of his snaps from the slot, and with estimated ramp up in production he might be in a good spot to score some points. If you are in need of a TE this week and Engram is sitting on waivers, now may not be a bad time to scoop him up! - Nick Westbrook-Ikhine @ NYJ ; I originally wasn't a fan of anyone on this offense other than Henry, but Tannehill came out this week and said he has a lot of "trust" in Nick, which for me is an indicator that he could see some usage this week. I ALSO like Anthony Firkser who is returning from a knee injury!
AVOID Damien Harris vs TB - Harris has been trending the wrong way ever since his strong Week One. He isn't involved as a pass catcher, and he relies purely on what he's able to do on the ground. Tampa Bay is one of the BEST run defenses in the entire league, and even with James White out, I just can't trust Harris in this matchup.
AVOID Melvin Gordon vs BAL - Not only is he banged up, but Gordon is also losing a lot of his passing work to Javonte Williams. Gordon's targets have decreased each game, while Williams' have increased. Not to say Williams owns that work now, but it's at the very least a complete split in a bad matchup.
AVOID Kenny Golladay @ NO - This guy just can't get it together on the field. No matter the amount of people that are out, DJ is just not connecting with him. Their chemistry may take some time to get going, and I don't want to test my luck in a matchup against Marshon Lattimore.
AVOID Will Fuller V vs IND - With Jacoby Brissett still having an average yards per attempt around 4.4 Yards. With Fuller last game playing 80% of his snaps on the outside, I wouldn't bet on him improving on his 12% Target Share, also given that he was limited in practice during the week with a chest/elbow injury.
AVOID Marquez Callaway vs NYG - James Bradbury has been great in coverage lately, and Callaway hasn't exactly been a home run hit any of the 3 Games the Saints have played. Jameis Winston has yet to throw for over 150 Yards in any game this year, and there isn't a ton of opportunity out there.
LOWER EXPECTATIONS - Clyde Edwards-Helaire @ PHI ; After a bounce-back game against the Chargers, CEH has regained some of the confidence of fantasy managers. But he still fumbled in that game, and only saw 2 Targets. Philly is known for having a stout run defense, and if you have a solid option that you are debating, I won't blame you for going the other way. - Darrell Henderson vs ARI ; Welcome back Hendo, in the time you missed, Sony Michel established that he can do everything you can do. Hendy will likely be limited and this backfield will be completely split. I'm not touching him if I can avoid the situation. - Courtland Sutton vs BAL ; After a stellar Week 2, Sutton went right back to being a disappointment in Week 3. The game script here screams pass heavy, but I'm expecting a lot of Tim Patrick, and a lot of Noah Fant. Marlon Humphrey is still one of the better cover corners in the league. Good Luck as always, and I'll see you back here for Week 5! 😉