Who's ready for some more 2022 Fantasy Football Action! I know I am, and in this article I'm going to be breaking down each of my starts and avoids for Week 4 of the NFL Season.
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Rather than going with the easy picks for starts and avoids, I try and focus on important decisions that fantasy managers actually need to make. Must starts and obvious sits within reason will not be on my lists.
A START is a suggested lineup move based on matchup, and an AVOID is quite the opposite. It is NOT a must enforce. So if I recommend avoiding Josh Jacobs, and the only player you have to replace him is someone like Devontae Booker, use your judgement and realize that a backup who won't see touches is not a better option than a starting QB.
That being said, lets win some leagues! 🏆
STARTS
🔥🔥🔥 KHALIL HERBERT @ NEW YORK GIANTS - According to a post by my buddy Rob at Fantasy Football StateofMind, In games where Herbert has played at least 30 Snaps, his games have been;
- 18 Rushes for 75 Yards
- 19 Rushes for 91 Yards and a TD
- 18 Rushes for 100 Yards
- 23 Rushes for 72 Yards
- 20 Rushes for 157 Yards and 2 TDs
And he now faces a lackluster Giants defense with Montgomery out. He's a borderline must start heading into Week 5.
🔥🔥 JAMAAL WILLIAMS vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - Now that D'Andre Swift has been ruled out, Williams is in line to see a heavy workload in what is expected to be a positive game script (Lions -3.5). Williams had been seeing 10+ touching even with Swift on the field, and can see more targets too with Amon-Ra St. Brown also out.
🔥🔥 CHRIS OLAVE vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS - Michael Thomas has been ruled out for this week, but so has Jameis Winston. With Winston, Olave put together a 31.7% Target Share and 32.5% Target Share over the last two weeks. He is quietly becoming the focal point of this entire offense and I don't think that changes with Dalton.
🔥🔥 TYLER LOCKETT @ DETROIT LIONS - The Seattle Seahawks have been letting Geno Cook these last few games. Which has resulted in Lockett seeing 22 Targets over the last two weeks alone. He's got another great matchup against the Lions and I wouldn't be surprised to see Geno Smith throw over 300 Yards again.
🔥🔥🔥 GABRIEL DAVIS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS - Assuming he is healthy enough to play, the Ravens have been getting absolutely 💩 on by perimeter receivers. With all the attention that Diggs will be grabbing on the opposing side, a healthy enough Davis is bound to make a big play (or few).
DESPERATE STARTS
- JOSH REYNOLDS vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ; With all of Chark, St. Brown, and Swift out, those targets have to go somewhere. That somewhere is likely Josh Reynolds who saw 10 Targets last week.
- JARVIS LANDRY vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS ; Andy Dalton is more prone to check downs, at least compared to Jameis "Slingin' It" Winston. With MT out, Landry could see added work in the slot in order to move the ball in down the field.
- JOSHUA PALMER @ HOUSTON TEXANS ; In the last two weeks without Keenan Allen, Palmer has racked up 13.0 and 15.9 Points. Without Allen again and a fully healthy Justin Herbert, Palmer is worth flex consideration yet again.
AVOIDS
🛑 D.J. MOORE vs ARIZONA CARDINALS - The matchup isn't bad, but the situation is. Tension seem to be high in Carolina and Rhule is putting the blame on the receivers for "not getting open". He isn't getting the ball and it's just hard to throw him in the lineup.
🛑🛑 DAMIEN HARRIS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS - Now that Brian Hoyer is starting, and the Patriots are 9 Point Underdogs, it's just not an ideal situation to start Harris who somewhat relies on the game script as opposed to Stevenson who has taken over the backfield and plays more on the pass catching downs.
🛑 MICHAEL CARTER @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS - Not that this isn't a decent matchup for Carter, but Breece Hall is taking more and more over this backfield, and the Jets RB2 against a stout Steelers D isn't ideal.
🛑🛑 J.K. DOBBINS vs BUFFALO BILLS - The usage was encouraging for Dobbins, but it's still going to be a slow process before he becomes the bonafide RB1. Plus, Harbaugh seems to like what Justice Hill brings to the table, so we could looking at a split backfield in a tough matchup.
🛑 MILES SANDERS vs JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - This isn't going to be a cakewalk of a matchup for the Eagles against the 2-1 Jags. In Sanders last two games he's failed to get into the end zone thanks to Jalen Hurts taking it himself. The usage hasn't been encouraging and we'll see a rotation of backs in a close game.
LOWER EXPECTATIONS
- CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ; CEH has yet to see more than 8 carries in a game and has failed to hit 15 touches in any game this year. His hyper efficiency may come to an end in a game against one of the toughest defenses in the league. Plus he's still being out snapped by Jerick McKinnon.
- EZEKIEL ELLIOT vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS ; Man, he just looks slow out there. Regardless of any of the stats, this is just not the same Zeke that we all knew. The Commanders has yet to allow any RB to run for over 75 Yards.
- DEVANTE PARKER @ GREEN BAY PACKERS ; The ball theoretically has to go somewhere, but Parker shined last week in an opportune matchup, and I don't believe he will have the same luck this week with Brian Hoyer.
Good Luck as always, and I'll see you back here for Week 5! 😉