I took a bit of a hiatus last week with my friends wedding, so I'm sorry I didn't have an article then, but now I'm back and geared up for Week 6!
Rather than going with the easy picks for starts and avoids, I try and focus on important decisions that fantasy managers actually need to make. Must starts and obvious sits within reason will not be on my lists.
A START is a suggested lineup move based on matchup, and an AVOID is quite the opposite. It is NOT a must enforce. So if I recommend avoiding Josh Jacobs, and the only player you have to replace him is someone like Devontae Booker, use your judgement and realize that a backup who won't see touches is not a better option than a starting QB.
That being said, lets win some leagues! 🏆
START Brandin Cooks @ IND - After averaging 20.6 PPG over the first three weeks, he hasn't managed more than 10 Points in either week after that. But if you really look into WHY he hasn't done anything, you see that in Week 4 he had a tough matchup against Tre'Davious White in a game where the Texans put up a whopping 0 Points. Followed by a game against the Patriots where if there is one thing Belichick is good at, it's taking away your best weapon, and considering the Texans have one weapon it wasn't that hard to do. The Colts are down Rock Ya-Sin and possibly Xavier Rhodes, who haven't been great anyway. This is a secondary that Cooks can feast against.
START Zack Moss @ TEN - This is no longer a 1A and 1B backfield, Zack Moss solidified himself the RB1 in Buffalo by playing 74% of the offensive snaps and seeing 15 or more opportunities (Targets + Carries) in his last three games. He's got a MNF matchup against a Titans run defense that allowed James Robinson to run for about 150 Yards on them, and with the Bills being 6 Point favorites game script is in his favor.
START Khalil Herbert vs GB - In the first game with David Montgomery out, Herbert and Damien Williams split the load. But what's interesting is that Herbert had more carries (18) and played more snaps (53%). So now with Damien OUT this week with COVID, Herbert has a chance at a workhorse role against a defense that's bottom half in the league at defending the run.
START Chase Claypool vs SEA - Claypool has only had ONE game this year with less than a 20% Target Share, and that was Week One. JuJu Smith-Schuster has now been deemed out for the season, and with a juicy SNF matchup against Seattle (4th Worst defense at defending WRs), Claypool is set to explode!
START Ricky Seals-Jones vs KC - I originally was going to label RSJ a Desperate Start, but considering Terry is injured, Curtis Samuel is out, and of course Logan Thomas is out against the WORST defense in the entire league, I'm willing to stick to my guns here. RSJ had a whopping 9 Targets in his first game as a starter, and also played 99% of the offensive snaps! All that topped with the fact he had 3 Redzone looks last week, and I would be SHOCKED if he didn't finish as a Top 10 TE.
DESPERATE STARTS
- Alex Collins @ PIT ; The matchup isn't great, but the volume is. With Chris Carson out last week, Alex Collins played 71% of the offensive snaps and had 17 Touches. With Russ out for a bit, this team may need to lean on the run game, and all is it takes is one goal-line carry for Collins to make him worth the play.
- Hunter Henry vs DAL ; After securing an insane 26.7% of snaps, Henry has firmly secured himself as the TE1 in New England. Don't believe me? Henry ran 20 Routes this past week compared to Jonnu's 6. Jonnu was also used as a run blocker on 23 Snaps!!! While Henry was also used in 6 Snaps. The roles have been established in New England, and Henry is startable in a game where it would be wise for Mac Jones to avoid Trevon Diggs and in a game where they will HAVE to pass the ball.
- Jaylen Waddle @ JAC ; Ah shit, here we go again. I've been burned by Waddle a few times, but now he's got Tua back, and both Fuller and Parker are out. The matchup against Jacksonville is great, so my hope is he gets enough targets to get you through the week. But with Tua back and a functioning offense, his upside is much higher.
AVOID Tyler Boyd @ DET - When all three WRs are healthy, Tyler Boyd seems to get the short end of the stick. Boyd had 5 Targets last week compared to the 10 Targets to Chase and 7 to Higgins. This week's matchup is fantastic, but it's so good for everyone else that Boyd won't see enough work in the slot to be startable. This could be a Joe Mixon 25 Carry game where Burrow doesn't have to do much, and I'm sure that's what the Bengals prefer too.
AVOID Latavius Murray vs LAC - Yes, Murray did lead the RBs with a whopping 49% of snaps, but in a game where they had to abandon the run, Murray was not startable. I don't think these week will be much different. Herbert and the Chargers will likely put up points early, and considering this backfield is still a committee I don't think Murray will get enough work, and do enough with it to be relevant.
AVOID Damien Harris vs DAL - By the time this article is up, there's a chance Damien Harris has been ruled out. So keep this same energy for Rhamondre Stevenson. Not only have the Cowboys been good against the run, but the Cowboys have been good as a whole. Especially at forcing turnovers (see Trevon Diggs). The Patriots will likely need to abandon the run here, which won't bode well for Harris/Stevenson.
AVOID Laviska Shenault vs MIA - I want to like Viska here, but if he's not getting the ball then it's impossible to start him, even in a good matchup. With Chark out, Laviska's snaps from the slot just fell off a cliff. He was averaging about 80% of the snaps in the slot, and last week it dropped to just 14%. I'm not if anyone knows what Meyers is doing, but I don't like it.
AVOID Odell Beckham Jr. vs ARI - Welcome to the next episode of; you can't trust anyone in Cleveland! This week's episode starring OBJ alongside newly activated Jarvis Landry in an offense that gave their backup TE a 21.9% Target Week in Week 5... All jokes aside, I want to like OBJ, but he hasn't been anything close to consistent.
LOWER EXPECTATIONS
- Darrel Williams @ WAS ; Williams may be the presumed starter with CEH out, but I don't think he's guaranteed anything here. I'm expecting a split between him and Jerk McKinnon, who for all we know could surpass Williams.
- Kadarius Toney vs LAR ; He's coming off a MONSTER week, but we really need to limit our expectations, especially with Sterling Shepard back on the field and with Toney facing a tough outside matchup where he will see a lot of Jalen Ramsey.
- Mike Gesicki @ JAC ; All the WRs are out, but Gesicki just hasn't been involved with Tua at the helm. That could definitely change, but Tua won't force feed Gesicki like Jacoby Brissett did...
If a player you are curious about was NOT mentioned in this article, I review every fantasy relevant player in EVERY matchup in the video below! I also answer ALL comments exclusively on YouTube as long as you subscribe! :)
Good Luck as always, and I'll see you back here for Week 7! 😉
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