Week 9 Fantasy Starts and Avoids!
I've been short on time these last few weeks, but I brought back the article and we get ready for the second half of the season!
Rather than going with the easy picks for starts and avoids, I try and focus on important decisions that fantasy managers actually need to make. Must starts and obvious sits within reason will not be on my lists.
A START is a suggested lineup move based on matchup, and an AVOID is quite the opposite. It is NOT a must enforce. So if I recommend avoiding Josh Jacobs, and the only player you have to replace him is someone like Devontae Booker, use your judgement and realize that a backup who won't see touches is not a better option than a starting QB.
That being said, lets win some leagues! 🏆
START Marquise Brown vs MIN - Before the bye week, even with Rashod Bateman active, Hollywood Brown had 15 Targets which resulted in a 33.3% target share. This is also against the same defense that allowed Cooper Rush to throw for over 300 Yards and for both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper to have over 100 Yards last week.
START Tua Tagovailoa vs HOU - Over the last 4 weeks, Tua Tagovailoa is the QB4 in Fantasy Football. That's without Will Fuller and without DeVante Parker in 2/3 of those games. Houston has not been good on defense to say the least, and they just put their best LB on injured reserve, trading away a young pass rusher, and released one of their starting corners.
START Devontae Booker vs LV - In the absence of Saquon Barkley, Booker has averaged 16.0 PPG, and last week especially Booker played 93% of the offensive snaps, which lead the entire league. The Las Vegas Raiders are not only in shambles over some of the best events, but they are also 21st at defending against RBs.
START Christian Kirk @ SF - No A.J. Green, and likely no Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. This means Colt McCoy will get the start, and he'll need somewhere to go with the ball. Both Kirk and Rondale Moore are intriguing options, but of the two Kirk is the one who has already been fully operating with the starters.
START Jarvis Landry @ CIN - Odell Beckham Jr. and the Browns have agreed to part ways, and luckily we have a ton of data of what it looks like when OBJ is not on the field. From that data, we see that Landry is the undoubted WR1 in Cleveland and will produce in his absence.
- Albert Okwuegbunam @ DAL ; No Noah Fant means there some additional opportunity for Albert to get some playing time. Even last week with Fant active, Albert took 3 targets for 34 yards. He's a big redzone target and really only needs one lucky TD catch in a game where Teddy will need to throw the ball.
- Boston Scott vs LAC ; What a disappointing week it was against the Lions for Kenneth Gainwell owners. This week may not be too different though I'm afraid. The Chargers are allowing the 4th most points per game to opposing RBs, and Scott lead the team in snaps and opportunities last week.
- Jeremy McNichols @ LAR ; Adrian Peterson is surprisingly suiting up for SNF and making his debut. But my expectations for the 36 Year RB aren't very high at all, especially in a tough starting matchup against the Rams. McNichols has been a vital part of the passing attack in the past, and play that role on Sunday in a positive passing game script.
AVOID James Conner vs SF - When Conner isn't scoring TDs, he's flopping. On what was the best offense in the entire league, Conner was a viable weekly flex play. But now with Kyler and Hopkins out, I'd count on Edmonds getting a majority of the playing time.
AVOID David Montgomery @ PIT - It's looking like David Montgomery is going to suit up for the first time since week 4. Not only is coming off injury, but in his absence, Khalil Herbert had established himself really as Chicago's best weapon. This could be a timeshare, and Monty could be limited.
AVOID Adrian Peterson @ LAR - Now if I had to pick one 36 Year Old RB to start in his first game off the streets, AD wouldn't be a bad bet. But in this case, I'm going to try and stay practical and see exactly what role he plays against a tough Rams defense.
AVOID Michael Gallup vs DEN - I talked about this in my YouTube video, but Gallup has been married to the outside, while budding weapon Cedrick Wilson has been playing exclusively in the slot. Meaning, unless that suddenly changes, in his first game off injury, Gallup is going to be fighting for outside snaps with Cooper and Lamb, plus this could very easily be a Ezekiel Elliot game.
AVOID Tajae Sharpe @ NO - Regardless of his absurd projection this week and his targets last week, Sharpe is not someone who can be trusted in Ridley's absence. Russel Gage played the exact same amount of snaps as Sharpe and ran the same routes. Gage has a better short history of producing with the team and acting as the team's WR2, while Sharpe is just now seeing snaps and could see some Lattimore on the outside.
- Elijah Mitchell vs ARI ; Jeff Wilson, who was the 49ers RB1 last year is returning for this game. Plus Mitchell has been held strictly to a one dimensional role, and won't have the aid of targets to help him along his way against one of the best defenses this year.
- Courtland Sutton @ DAL ; We already saw Sutton fall back just a little bit last week, and that could very well continue with a tough matchup against Trevon Diggs this week. Plus with Jeudy back, targets could be sparse.
- Darrel Williams vs GB ; Derrick Gore anyone? I'm not overly concerned with Williams' workload because he was still very much involved. But it was quite alarming to see the emergence of another back, which is something to keep an eye on...
If a player you are curious about was NOT mentioned in this article, I review every fantasy relevant player in EVERY matchup in the video below! I also answer ALL comments exclusively on YouTube as long as you subscribe! :)
Good Luck as always, and I'll see you back here for Week 10! 😉