Why you shouldn’t draft Patrick Mahomes at his ADP
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league right now and the clear QB1 in fantasy and no one is arguing that. Having Mahomes on your roster week after week definitely gives you some peace of mind, however with his high ADP is he really worth taking at 17th (Sleeper Fantasy ADP) overall?
That’s pick 2.05 in 12 man drafts! Ahead of guys like Joe Mixon, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Najee Harris, Calvin Ridley, and JK Dobbins just to name a few, those are some serious game changers.
For the sake of keeping this short and not breaking down every starting quarterback I’m going to limit it to 3 guys that I think have tremendous value at their current ADP, Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, and Ryan Tannehill.
Jackson and Mahomes have been compared in every aspect of their game since joining the league and Mahomes has dominated almost every category, 3-0 record, a Super Bowl, as well as a Super Bowl MVP, but 1 thing he doesn't have is a better fantasy PPG.
Jackson is coming off a disappointing season following a record breaking 2019, which is causing his rank to slide. This offseason Baltimore added wide receivers Rashod Bateman, Tylan Wallace, and Sammy Watkins giving Jackson the best weapons he's had at the NFL level.
With some offensive line additions, and the return of Ronnie Stanley the Ravens offense should see some improvements from last season.
Lamar’s ADP is 42.0, that's 24.5 picks after Mahomes’ 17.5, that doesn't seem like much, but it's 2 whole rounds and a significant tier drop off. Joe Mixon is at the exact same spot as Patrick Mahomes, and is a major upgrade over Darrell Henderson who is being taken right after Lamar Jackson.
Mixon only played 6 games last season, but averaged 16.6 PPG whereas Henderson as a part time player averaged 8.7, yes Henderson didn’t see a full time role, but even if you add up the games where he saw 15+ touches it’s still not even close.
Secondly, we have the defending Super Bowl MVP, the GOAT himself, Tom Brady. Brady finished as the QB10 last season in terms of PPG, which is not quite Mahomes' level, but still a strong performance and he did it in his first year on a new team.
The Bucs turned it on in the second half of the season and rode it all the way to winning their 2nd Super Bowl in Franchise history. Entering 2021 the Bucs returned each starter from 2020, and if there is 1 thing we all know it’s that you don’t give Tom Brady more time.
With a whole year and another offseason under his belt Brady is going to be better than he was last year. Brady currently sits with the third best odds to win the passing crown and you know the touchdowns will come.
Brady has some of the best receiving weapons in the game and his ADP of 85.6 is a gift for fantasy managers looking to get a QB after building up their roster with early round RB & WR talent.
So what running backs are available around Brady’s ADP? How about the likes of Kenyan Drake & James Connor, two guys who are currently listed as backups on their teams depth charts Drake had a decent start to the season before he slowly fell off eventually losing his job to Chase Edmonds and departing to backup Josh Jacobs in Vegas.
While Connor on the other hand was inconsistent with Pittsburgh and proved not to be the answer, he now resides in Arizona handling backing up Chase Edmonds. Neither back looks to have a cut out role in their offenses.
Lastly, we have last year's QB9 and a guy who got perhaps the greatest present of the offseason, Ryan Tannehill. This off-season the Titans made a trade with the Atlanta Falcons to bring in veteran wide receiver Julio Jones, Jones gives the Titans arguably the best pass catching duo in the league with himself and AJ Brown.
Tannehill is coming off the best year of his career, he finished with a total of 40 touchdowns. Tannehill is currently being drafted as the QB14, a guy who scored 40 touchdowns last season isn’t even being drafted as a starter.
Now I’m not telling you not to draft Patrick Mahomes, but I am telling you when it’s your turn to pick in the 2nd round think about securing that elite RB2 or top tier WR1, you will feel more comfortable down the road and not have to worry about streaming running backs.
There are plenty of quality quarterbacks out there, I just named a select few.