The 2024 NFL season is mere days away from its annual Thursday Night kickoff, and fantasy football drafts are abundant ahead of the start of the highly-anticipated return to action between Kansas City and Baltimore. Every season, players get drafted later than they should and turn out to reap benefits for an influx of fortunate fantasy owners, and if you want to set your team up for success, here are five players assuredly worth drafting at their average draft position if you’re in a bind on draft day.
Kenneth Walker III (RB)
In 2023, Kenneth Walker III powered his way to a 905 yard, eight touchdown performance that saw the former Spartan finish as the overall RB19 despite missing back-to-back contests in Weeks 12 and 13.
Walker is one of the league’s best pure runners, as his blend of size and athleticism often leaves defenders looking foolish. The 2022 second-round pick ranked eighth among all rushers with 56 missed tackles (MTF) forced and his 25.6% missed tackle rate out of the backfield was 13th among all RB’s.
Seattle also brought in a new play-caller in local mind Ryan Grubb, who yielded sizzling results while working with the Washington Huskies’ offensive juggernaut. Grubb brought out the best in his collegiate offense in Seattle, and now aims to do the same with the Seahawks.
Grubb’s offense specializes in airing the football out, which would typically not bode well for Walker’s fantasy prospects, but reports indicate that Grubb sees Walker as a bona fide three-down talent, walking up Walker’s abilities in the passing game.
The newfound role for “K9” means that Zach Charbonnet will be just a minor threat for playing time, especially with Walker inside the top 20 in yards per route run (YPRR) for running backs from a season ago.
While DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will contend with Walker for touches, the end-zone ability makes the 23-year-old a must draft at his ESPN average draft position (ADP) of 44.6 and Sleeper ADP of 50.6, making the third-year rising star a strong bet to exceed his RB2 projection.
Nico Collins (WR)
With a surplus of mouths to feed in Houston, the wide receiver room is as murky as they come, with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz, and Tank Dell all vying for targets from blossoming superstar CJ Stroud. Collins’ breakout campaign saw him post career highs with 80 receptions, 1,297 yards and eight scores in his first season with Stroud under center leading to the Michigan man finishing as the WR7 in fantasy points per game and the W12 in total points.
Despite a crowded, explosive offense in Space City, Collins’ immense big-play potential has only added to the optimism for fantasy owners. The 2021 third-round pick was second only to Tyreek Hill in YPRR in 2023, with an average of 3.1 yards per route run in one of the league’s most promising offenses.
What makes Collins as encouraging as he is was the fact that his 22.7% target share from 2023 was 29th among all wide receivers, so the crowded receiving room is unlikely to affect the 25-year-old up-and-comer. Diggs is now on the wrong side of 30 and Dell is fresh off of season-ending fibula surgery, so Collins is by far the safest pass-catcher in what should be one of the NFL’s most potent offenses.
The 6 '4, 215 pound speedster is usually going off the board in the third round of fantasy drafts as a solid WR2 at his 33.4 ADP in ESPN leagues. Especially with both Diggs and Dell going just a round or two later, Collins is a must-draft at his value when you’re on the clock.
Rashee Rice (WR)
One of the NFL’s most controversial fantasy prospects due to an offseason barred with legal troubles, the skepticism was at its’ capacity following the SMU product heading into his second season in the pros in spite of his WR27 finish from a season ago.
Despite a sizzling rookie showing which saw Rice attain 938 receiving yards from the NFL’s most prolific passer in Patrick Mahomes, concern began to brew with the second-year stud due to his involvement in a high-speed hit-and-run in March.
The legal process has not yet concluded for the 24-year-old, meaning that a suspension in 2024 is becoming increasingly unlikely for a key cog for one of the league’s most fruitful offenses for fantasy owners.
Regardless of the off-field concerns, there is an excess of optimism regarding Rice’s on-field production. His rapport with Mahomes and his heavy involvement in the offense quickly into his tenure in the pros left fantasy owners salivating down the stretch last season, as the Texas native averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game over the last six games of the season.
The former rookie standout was 10th in the NFL with 2.39 yards per route run, posting stronger numbers in that area than Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, and DK Metcalf.
While the ex-Mustang was highly productive in his rookie campaign, he accrued just a 17.9% target share in his initial season in the NFL, a number that is primed to soar headed into year two. The Chiefs also bolstered the receiving core by drafting Xavier Worthy and signing Marquise Brown to make a fearsome offense even deadlier.
Many expect the additions of Worthy and Brown to be a detriment to Rice’s fantasy value, but due to Rice’s role as a chain-mover and an established connection with Mahomes, his second year breakout is worth drafting at his ESPN ADP of 71.9, which has begun to soar in recent weeks. Rice is one of the best FLEX values you can find, but draft him before his price tag becomes too steep.
Trey McBride (TE)
When the Cardinals drafted Trey McBride in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, the expectation was that McBride would usurp Zach Ertz and become the tight end of the future in Arizona.
Ertz was cut by the Cards in November and Kyler Murray returned to action in Week 10, resulting in a blazing finish to McBride’s sophomore season which saw him average 14.9 fantasy points per game with Murray under center.
The former Mackey Award winner finished as the TE8 in points per game and the TE7 in total fantasy points, and should see an uptick in targets in a higher-octane offense with Murray at full health.
One of the most appealing aspects of McBride’s fantasy value is his 89.2% route participation, a clip higher than Sam LaPorta’s, who is being drafted as the TE1 in the bulk of fantasy football leagues.
The Colorado State alumni led all tight ends with 2.03 yards per route run a season ago, and will see his 19.6% target share skyrocket going into his third season as a pro.
Outside of Marvin Harrison Jr, McBride will see very little competition for touches, and Murray’s penchant for targeting tight ends has McBride as one of the best values at the tight end position in drafts and should far outperform his fifth-round ADP.
De’Von Achane (RB)
One of the speediest players in the sport, De’Von Achane amassed a dazzling rookie season down in Miami with 800 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns in a split backfield with Raheem Mostert despite missing six games and only touching the ball twice in a seventh.
Achane’s high-level burst carried him to an impressive rookie season, as the former Aggie was the RB5 in points per game a season ago despite an inconsistent role for Mike McDaniel’s squad.
Mostert scored 18 rushing touchdowns in 2023, a number that will not be sustained at the not-so-ripe age of 32, meaning that Achane will see more goal line production headed into his sophomore campaign.
Despite having to split touches with Mostert, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle, Achane made the most of his opportunities when they came along. The Texas A&M product led the NFL with 7.8 yards per carry and was second only to Keaton Mitchell in yards after contact per attempt.
In one of the AFC’s most dynamic offenses, big plays are frequent, and Achane has managed to prove that he can be a relevant fantasy contributor on limited touches due to his big-play prowess, but Achane’s usage will undoubtedly ascend in his second season.
Achane’s ESPN ADP of 41.5 is a significant discount compared to his Sleeper ADP of 25, so as a second or third-round RB2, the upside of the 22-year-old speedster makes this selection a worthwhile investment to break out even further.
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